Africa plans to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity by 2030, making it one of the fastest-growing regions for refinery development, according to the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook.
Projects in Nigeria, Angola, and Uganda are driving this growth, showing the continent’s effort to strengthen energy supply and draw investment.
Nigeria leads the expansion with the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already changing regional fuel trade.
Other developments include the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery in Nigeria and Angola’s plan to complete the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and the 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030.
Uganda is advancing its refining plans with a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, part of the Lake Albert basin project.
Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo, and additional sites in Nigeria are rolling out modular refinery projects, which allow for smaller but scalable additions where financing and infrastructure remain a challenge.
In North Africa, Algeria is building the Hassi Messaoud Refinery, Libya is pushing ahead with the Ubari project, and Egypt is moving forward with the Soukhna Refinery. These projects aim to improve domestic supply and reduce reliance on imported fuel.
OPEC estimates Africa will require over $40 billion in refining investment by 2030 to meet current goals.
After 2030, Africa will need an additional $60 billion for new refineries, upgrades, and secondary processing. This creates a $100 billion investment opportunity for developers, investors, and state-backed funds. With most new refineries expected in Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East through 2050, the continent is becoming a focus for downstream growth.
Africa’s domestic crude demand is projected to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd in 2050. As consumption grows, exports will fall by more than one million bpd, showing a shift toward internal use and local value chains.
This refining expansion marks a strategic shift. If Africa follows through, it can move from being mainly a crude exporter to building a stronger, more integrated refining sector. With $100 billion in investment needs by 2050 and large trade deficits to address, the case for boosting refining capacity is clear.
source: dailytrust.com
African Energy Council