Nigeria is set to lobby the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for a higher oil production quota as it recovers from years of declining crude output.
Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), stated that the country aims to boost production to meet budgetary goals before formally requesting a quota adjustment from OPEC.
“Nigeria’s priority is to ramp up production to align with its budget targets before approaching OPEC for a quota increase,” Komolafe explained.
In December 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed to 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly below its assigned OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
This represents a strong rebound from 2022, when oil output plummeted to 1.1 million bpd due to extensive theft and pipeline vandalism.
The government’s efforts to enhance security and attract investments have played a crucial role in reversing the decline, with officials projecting production to reach 2 million bpd—the highest level in a decade.
In 2022, widespread theft and sabotage severely damaged key infrastructure, such as the Trans-Niger Pipeline, where criminals illegally tapped over 150 points. As a result, oil producers received only a fraction of the crude transported through the system.
To combat these issues, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) introduced several initiatives, including a real-time production monitoring centre and partnerships with local communities to safeguard pipelines.
“These strategies are delivering results, but at a high financial cost,” noted Ifeanyi Onyegiri, a senior analyst at Welligence. Analysts argue that if Nigeria sustains these improvements, it will have a stronger case for securing a higher OPEC quota.
Despite these gains, experts caution that maintaining security across the extensive Niger Delta pipeline network remains a persistent challenge. “The biggest obstacle is ensuring long-term protection against vandalism,” said Pranav Joshi, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Local oil companies have also been instrumental in the recovery.
Nigerian-owned firms like Seplat Energy and Oando have ramped up investments, with Seplat planning to more than double its production to 120,000 bpd following its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s offshore assets. Similarly, Oando aims to increase its output to 100,000 BPD in the coming years.
Komolafe highlighted that drilling activity has tripled over the past four years, reflecting growing confidence in the sector. However, Nigeria’s goal of exceeding 2 million bpd may create friction with OPEC, which enforces production limits to stabilize global oil prices.
Recent OPEC developments present mixed signals. While Angola exited the cartel in 2023 after rejecting stricter output controls, the United Arab Emirates successfully negotiated a higher quota in 2024, citing expanded production capacity.
Given Nigeria’s pressing fiscal needs, analysts suggest the government may prioritize increased production over strict compliance with OPEC restrictions. “Nigeria’s current financial situation makes exceeding its OPEC quota highly tempting, as additional revenue directly helps reduce the budget deficit,” explained Dipo Ogunbiyi, an energy analyst at Renaissance Capital Africa.
African Energy Council