Uganda expects its GDP to grow by over 10% once oil production starts. The government said on X that it plans to begin output this year and has set aside UGX24.3 billion ($6.57 million) to speed things up.
Wambui Njehu, a Great Lakes analyst at Control Risks, sees that timeline as too optimistic. She says the country might only manage a symbolic commissioning where some oil flows while key infrastructure is still unfinished.
She adds that delays in engineering and construction have pushed timelines back. In her view, mid-2026 is unlikely, and early 2027 is a more realistic target.
Even so, progress continues. Work on the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil fields and the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline is moving forward.
The 1,443-kilometer EACOP pipeline will link oil fields in Hoima to Tanzania’s Port of Tanga and handle Uganda’s crude exports.
Global supply risks have also put Uganda’s plans into focus. Disruptions in the Middle East have highlighted Africa’s dependence on imported fuel, with Angola and Nigeria as the main suppliers in sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery remains the region’s only large-scale facility, producing about 650,000 barrels per day.
Uganda also plans to build a refinery, but progress has stalled due to delays and investor pullouts, according to Njehu.
Still, Uganda is pushing ahead with broader industrial development alongside other African countries.
source: www.forbesafrica.com
African Energy Council