Nigeria risks losing close to three billion dollars in crude oil exports to the United States this year following President Donald Trump’s military intervention in Venezuela, which is set to alter how the US sources its oil.
As Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria has long supplied crude to American refineries. Between January and September last year, the country exported about 38 million barrels to the US, earning roughly $2.86 billion.
That position is now under threat after Trump announced plans for Venezuela to supply between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil to the US following the removal of former president Nicolás Maduro.
Trump stated on Truth Social that the oil would be sold at market prices, with proceeds placed under US control to serve both Venezuelan and American interests, signalling Washington’s intention to oversee Venezuelan crude revenues directly.
This development places Nigeria’s standing in the US market at risk, as Venezuelan crude competes for the same Gulf Coast refinery capacity despite differences in quality.
Shipping records reviewed by BusinessDay show Nigeria exported 38.1 million barrels of crude to the US between January and September, generating $2.86 billion in revenue over the period.
Monthly export volumes fluctuated widely, falling as low as 1.8 million barrels in February and rising to 6.9 million barrels in June, reflecting irregular cargo schedules and changing refinery demand.
On average, Nigeria shipped about 4.2 million barrels per month, with revenues ranging from $142 million to $484 million depending on volumes and crude prices. June delivered the highest earnings, while February recorded the weakest performance.
These swings highlight the difficulty Nigerian producers face in maintaining steady access to the US market, a weakness that increased Venezuelan supply could further expose.
The $2.86 billion earned over nine months represents a major income stream for Nigeria, meaning any loss of market share to Venezuelan crude would have serious economic consequences.
The pressure comes at a difficult time, as Nigeria struggles to keep oil production above 1.5 million barrels per day due to pipeline sabotage, aging facilities, and limited investment. These challenges raise doubts about the country’s ability to match Venezuela on both price and supply volumes if its industry rebounds.
Even though Trump’s plan faces hurdles, the possibility of Venezuelan oil returning to the US has already begun shaping trading decisions. Several US refiners have indicated they would reconsider purchases from West Africa if Venezuelan crude becomes consistently available at competitive prices.
The concern extends beyond the immediate volumes being discussed, as the reentry of Venezuelan oil into the US market signals a broader shift after years of sanctions, prompting refiners to rethink long term supply arrangements.
Trump’s claim of control over Venezuelan oil sales has also sparked international backlash, particularly from China, which has been Venezuela’s main crude buyer in recent years. Chinese officials have criticised the move as unlawful and coercive.
The implications go beyond supply flows. Reports indicate the US has pressed Venezuela’s interim leadership under President Delcy Rodríguez to grant exclusive oil partnerships to Washington and cut economic ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.
If Venezuela redirects oil previously shipped to Asia, Chinese refiners may turn more heavily to West African suppliers, which could help offset some of Nigeria’s potential losses in the US.
However, increased Chinese demand may not fully compensate, as buyers in China often push for lower prices and stricter payment terms compared with US refiners.
source: businessday.ng
African Energy Council