The upcoming Nigerian election will see a new president and members for the House of Representatives and Senate, as President Muhammadu Buhari will complete his two-term limit in May. The electorate will choose from 18 candidates, including Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar from the opposition People’s Democratic Party, and Peter Obi from the Labour Party, who is leading in some polls. However, polling is unreliable, and the ruling party has an advantage in mobilizing support through state resources.
The main issues for Nigerian voters are the insecurity and instability in the country due to kidnappings, separatist violence, Islamist insurgency, ethnic tensions, and corruption. Inflation is at a 20-year high, the naira currency has dropped to record lows, and many Nigerians are leaving the country, resulting in a brain drain.
The major political parties have no clear ideological differences, and rather than ideology, competition for oil revenues, patronage, and ethnic rivalries take on bigger roles. The main candidates have made the revival of the economy and ending insecurity their priorities, promising better pay for security forces, investing more in education, and scrapping the fuel subsidy. However, they differ on the timing of these reforms.
Some 93.4 million people have registered to vote, with most between 18 and 49 years old. However, the parties face the challenge of getting votes, as many younger Nigerians do not relate to the septuagenarian political veterans who are the major-party candidates. In 2019, voter turnout was only 35%. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will be using a Bimodal Voter Accreditation System to identify voters through fingerprints and facial recognition to prevent electoral fraud.
There are security concerns for the election, as authorities have directed universities to shut down for nearly three weeks ahead of the vote. Results will be pasted outside polling stations and displayed in real-time on an INEC portal in Abuja, with official results expected within five days. The candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner if they have at least one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital, or there will be a run-off between the top two candidates within 21 days.
